WN37: Technical Analysis on gold and oil
By Antreas Themistokleous
12 September 2023
Crude Oil (USOIL)
Oil prices fell on Thursday as concerns about China’s economic outlook outweighed expectations of tighter supplies from extended cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia. The market also digested mixed data from China, with overall exports falling 8.8% in August, while crude imports surged 30.9%. In addition, rising oil output from Iran and Venezuela also kept a lid on the market.
However, US crude oil inventories were projected to fall by 5.5 million barrels, which implies greater demand for the commodity and therefore provides some support to the price.
The price of black gold is at a 10-month high and many analysts are debating whether it could climb higher. There’s still room for a bullish continuation before we see some easing on the charts.
From a technical point of view, the price has performed exceptionally to reach a 10-month high. It’s currently testing out the resistance of the Bollinger bands while the Stochastic oscillator is in extreme overbought levels.
The 50-day moving average is still trading well above the 100-day moving average, indicating a bullish momentum still going strong, so a continuation to the upside in the near short term might be the prevailing scenario.
Gold prices rose slightly as Treasury yields pulled back, while the dollar remained strong, according to the index chart, DXY. Investors are awaiting more US economic data to determine the outlook for interest rates, like the Consumer Price Index set for release on Wednesday, 13 September. The dollar is near its highest level since March, while 10-year Treasury yields slipped from a two-week high, at the same time traders predict a 93% chance of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting. Higher US interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold.
The US economy showed modest growth, with positive non farm payrolls that beat expectations adding 187,000 jobs, after a revised figure of 157,000 for July. The service sector is also picking up as the latest release showed it expanding faster than anticipated, creating some gains for the dollar. But the main focus is on next week’s CPI release, which could create volatility on the majority of USD pairs.
According to technical analysis, the price found sufficient resistance on the 100-day moving average just below the weekly downward trendline, and has since corrected to the downside. It’s currently testing the support of the 50% daily Fibonacci retracement level, while the Stochastic oscillator is pushed back to neutral levels.
If this area proves to be strong technical support, then we might see a rebound to the upside and the price retesting the $1,936 price area which consists of the 50-day moving average, the 23.6% mark of the daily Fibonacci retracement, and is also just below the strong weekly downtrend line.
This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Antreas Themistokleous is a trading specialist in Exness. He is a Certified Financial Technician since 2018. As a member of the Society of Technical Analysts, Antreas is implementing advanced use of indicators and patterns to conclude in an action plan for different trading strategies.
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